The shortage of industrial and logistics properties in and around Hamburg entered a new dimension at the end of the year: Between October and December a mere 30,000 m² of space was taken up. “Businesses planning to move to different premises are seeking ESG-compliant space in new-build quality. However, over the past two years of strong take-up, nearly all such space has been absorbed. Thus far fewer agreements for large amounts of space were signed in 2023,” remarks Nico Beckmann, consultant for industrial and logistics real estate at Grossmann & Berger, member of German Property Partners (GPP). There was nevertheless a brisk market for small to mid-sized properties. Overall, Grossmann & Berger noted only 14 % fewer rental agreements and construction starts for owner-occupiers year on year.
The 4th quarter was not only the weakest of 2023, but also the weakest ever registered. In 2023, for the first time ever, each quarterly result was below 100,000 m², so that the total take-up for the year added up to 290,000 m². Nor had an annual result starting with the figure 2 been seen before on the market for industrial and logistics space in Hamburg. This translates into a fall of 45 % against the strong prior year.
Looking at what 2024 might bring Beckmann says, “In view of new geopolitical conflicts many companies face uncertainties. Therefore many are awaiting further developments. Increased borrowing and construction costs plus a lack of building sites has appreciably reduced new-build activity and only rarely will a developer now start a speculative building project. In the short term, therefore, there will be no great improvement in the availability of space. If the situation remains more or less as it is, we see a maximum figure of 350,000 square metres as realistic in 2024.”
Details for Hamburg market of industrial and logistics properties:
- Only 90,000 m², composed of six separate agreements, was taken up in the size category 10,001 m² or more (Q4 2022: 324,000 m²). That represents a 72 % drop. In terms of size the largest agreement noted in 2023 was less than half as big as the biggest construction start for an owner-occupier in 2022 (Aldi, 42,500 m²).
- Owner-occupiers made up 27 %, barely changed year on year.
- Both the average and the premium rent had climbed to new highs by the end of the year. Year on year the prime rent rose by 80 cents to €8.30/m²/month, the average rent by 40 cents to €6.20/m²/month.
An overview of the industrial and logistics top deals and all relevant market figures can be found in the press release for download.
Our Market survey industrial & logistics Hamburg Q4 2023 in PDF format will shortly be available to download from our website.